Florida Panthers at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers
Canucks- Dakota JoshuaGoals2
- Conor GarlandAssists1
- Dakota JoshuaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P215:41Brock Boeser Goal (22) Backhand, assists: J.T. Miller (28), Elias Pettersson (27)0–4
- P210:08Dakota Joshua Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–3
- P113:52Dakota Joshua Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Teddy Blueger (3)0–2
- P14:03Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (8)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:03Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (8)FLA 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 55% → 69% +14VAN 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P113:52Dakota Joshua Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Teddy Blueger (3)FLA 0 – 2 VAN · VAN 70% → 83% +13VAN 70% → 83%+13 pts
- P210:08Dakota Joshua Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: noneFLA 0 – 3 VAN · VAN 87% → 95% +8VAN 87% → 95%+8 pts
- P215:41Brock Boeser Goal (22) Backhand, assists: J.T. Miller (28), Elias Pettersson (27)FLA 0 – 4 VAN · VAN 96% → >99% +3VAN 96% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 57%
- Fair odds
- VAN -124
- FLA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 3.3 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +3 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +46 Elo | VAN 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.81st of 31 |
| 5th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.4 | Margin | +1.31st of 31 |
| 3rd of 3155.2% | Shot share | 48.7%23rd of 31 |
| 10th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 91.7%4th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 14th of 318–7 | Road vs home | 11–43rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
FLA 0–1 VAN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.