Florida Panthers at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers
Kraken- Pierre-Edouard BellemareGoals1
- Will BorgenAssists2
- Pierre-Edouard BellemarePoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:09Eeli Tolvanen Goal (7) Batted, assists: Vince Dunn (19)0–4
- P39:13Alex Wennberg Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Borgen (9), Tye Kartye (5)0–3
- P35:59Pierre-Edouard Bellemare Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (1), Kailer Yamamoto (4)0–2
- P23:06Kailer Yamamoto Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Borgen (8), Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (1)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:06Kailer Yamamoto Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Borgen (8), Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (1)FLA 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 52% → 70% +18SEA 52% → 70%+18 pts
- P35:59Pierre-Edouard Bellemare Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (1), Kailer Yamamoto (4)FLA 0 – 2 SEA · SEA 79% → 94% +15SEA 79% → 94%+15 pts
- P39:13Alex Wennberg Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Borgen (9), Tye Kartye (5)FLA 0 – 3 SEA · SEA 96% → >99% +4SEA 96% → >99%+4 pts
- P316:09Eeli Tolvanen Goal (7) Batted, assists: Vince Dunn (19)FLA 0 – 4 SEA · SEA >99% → >99% +0SEA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 45%
- Fair odds
- SEA -113
- FLA +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 3.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +5 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +34 Elo | FLA 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 2.529th of 31 |
| 4th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.524th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.930th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3155.4% | Shot share | 51.3%12th of 31 |
| 9th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 89.0%27th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 31 |
| 10th of 318–6 | Road vs home | 4–1030th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
FLA 1–0 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.