Minnesota Wild at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Joel Eriksson EkGoals1
- Mats ZuccarelloAssists1
- Joel Eriksson EkPoints1
KrakenScoring summary
- P319:56Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (6)3–0
- P312:34Marco Rossi Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (22)2–0
- P17:14Matt Boldy Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (16)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:14Matt Boldy Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (16)MIN 1 – 0 SEA · MIN 50% → 65% +15MIN 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P312:34Marco Rossi Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (22)MIN 2 – 0 SEA · MIN 85% → 98% +13MIN 85% → 98%+13 pts
- P319:56Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (6)MIN 3 – 0 SEA · MIN 100% → 100% +0MIN 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Fair odds
- MIN -101
- SEA +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.1 – 3.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | SEA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +12 | +5 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.31 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +29 Elo | MIN 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 31 |
| 23rd of 31−0.4 | Margin | −0.930th of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.4% | Shot share | 51.4%12th of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.1% | Save percentage | 88.9%28th of 31 |
| 22nd of 314–6 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 31 |
| 27th of 314–9 | Road vs home | 4–930th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.