New Jersey Devils at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Jack HughesGoals3
- Jesper BrattAssists3
- Jack HughesPoints3
Blue Jackets- Alexandre TexierGoals1
- Dmitri VoronkovAssists1
- Alexandre TexierPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:12Jack Hughes Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none6–3
- P318:57Alexandre Texier Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (9), David Jiricek (7)5–3
- P32:50Nico Hischier Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (24)5–2
- P214:54Jack Hughes Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (23), Nico Hischier (7)4–2
- P28:38Yegor Chinakhov Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Andrew Peeke (3), Dmitri Voronkov (10)3–2
- P20:50Tyler Toffoli Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (22)3–1
- P20:17Kirill Marchenko Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (12)2–1
- P116:21Erik Haula Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (5), Alexander Holtz (6)2–0
- P10:47Jack Hughes Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Tyler Toffoli (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:21Erik Haula Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (5), Alexander Holtz (6)NJ 2 – 0 CBJ · NJ 63% → 78% +15NJ 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P20:17Kirill Marchenko Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (12)NJ 2 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 21% → 36% +15CBJ 21% → 36%+15 pts
- P20:50Tyler Toffoli Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (22)NJ 3 – 1 CBJ · NJ 64% → 79% +15NJ 64% → 79%+15 pts
- P28:38Yegor Chinakhov Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Andrew Peeke (3), Dmitri Voronkov (10)NJ 3 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 18% → 34% +16CBJ 18% → 34%+16 pts
- P214:54Jack Hughes Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (23), Nico Hischier (7)NJ 4 – 2 CBJ · NJ 69% → 85% +17NJ 69% → 85%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 53%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -120
- NJ +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.0 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +7 | NJ: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CBJ: Daniil Tarasov (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +18 Elo | CBJ 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.630th of 31 |
| 18th of 310.0 | Margin | −0.626th of 31 |
| 9th of 3152.2% | Shot share | 45.8%27th of 31 |
| 28th of 3189.0% | Save percentage | 90.5%13th of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 3rd of 319–5 | Road vs home | 7–921st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NJ 0–1 CBJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.