Columbus Blue Jackets at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Kent JohnsonGoals2
- David JiricekAssists2
- Kent JohnsonPoints3
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals2
- Mitch MarnerAssists2
- Auston MatthewsPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT3:26Kent Johnson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (22), Justin Danforth (7)6–5
- P319:15Auston Matthews Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (20), John Tavares (20)5–5
- P318:45Auston Matthews Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (24), Mitchell Marner (19)5–4
- P314:21Jake McCabe Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Conor Timmins (4), Nicholas Robertson (5)5–3
- P33:49Mitchell Marner Goal (12) Between Legs, assists: John Tavares (19), Bobby McMann (3)5–2
- P30:38William Nylander Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (12), William Lagesson (3)5–1
- P214:19Johnny Gaudreau Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Chinakhov (4), Zach Werenski (21)5–0
- P210:45Yegor Chinakhov Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (15), David Jiricek (6)4–0
- P28:16Justin Danforth Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Ivan Provorov (14), David Jiricek (5)3–0
- P111:56Kent Johnson Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Andrew Peeke (2)2–0
- P16:19Patrik Laine Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:19Patrik Laine Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (6)CBJ 1 – 0 TOR · CBJ 44% → 59% +15CBJ 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P111:56Kent Johnson Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Andrew Peeke (2)CBJ 2 – 0 TOR · CBJ 60% → 75% +15CBJ 60% → 75%+15 pts
- P28:16Justin Danforth Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Ivan Provorov (14), David Jiricek (5)CBJ 3 – 0 TOR · CBJ 81% → 92% +11CBJ 81% → 92%+11 pts
- P319:15Auston Matthews Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (20), John Tavares (20)CBJ 5 – 5 TOR · TOR <1% → 51% +51TOR <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT3:26Kent Johnson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (22), Justin Danforth (7)CBJ 6 – 5 TOR · CBJ 49% → 99% +50CBJ 49% → 99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 62%
- Fair odds
- TOR -130
- CBJ +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +4 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +85 Elo | TOR 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.65th of 31 |
| 28th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.215th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.6 | Margin | +0.49th of 31 |
| 27th of 3146.0% | Shot share | 50.1%16th of 31 |
| 13th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 90.4%16th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 31st of 312–11 | Road vs home | 8–59th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.