Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals2
- Auston MatthewsAssists2
- Auston MatthewsPoints4
Rangers- Blake WheelerGoals2
- Mika ZibanejadAssists1
- Blake WheelerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:33David Kampf Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: TJ Brodie (6), Mitchell Marner (18)7–3
- P317:11Auston Matthews Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (23), Jake McCabe (6)6–3
- P31:29Mitchell Marner Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Rielly (16), Auston Matthews (11)5–3
- P218:26Blake Wheeler Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (15), Jacob Trouba (11)4–3
- P216:30Mika Zibanejad Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (23), Adam Fox (15)4–2
- P115:41Mitchell Marner Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (10), William Lagesson (2)4–1
- P115:20Calle Jarnkrok Goal (7) Backhand, assists: John Tavares (18)3–1
- P15:42Blake Wheeler Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: none2–1
- P15:07Conor Timmins Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Calle Jarnkrok (9), Max Domi (13)2–0
- P13:52Auston Matthews Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (22), Noah Gregor (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:52Auston Matthews Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (22), Noah Gregor (2)TOR 1 – 0 NYR · TOR 41% → 56% +15TOR 41% → 56%+15 pts
- P15:42Blake Wheeler Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: noneTOR 2 – 1 NYR · NYR 29% → 44% +14NYR 29% → 44%+14 pts
- P115:20Calle Jarnkrok Goal (7) Backhand, assists: John Tavares (18)TOR 3 – 1 NYR · TOR 59% → 74% +15TOR 59% → 74%+15 pts
- P218:26Blake Wheeler Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (15), Jacob Trouba (11)TOR 4 – 3 NYR · NYR 14% → 32% +18NYR 14% → 32%+18 pts
- P31:29Mitchell Marner Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Rielly (16), Auston Matthews (11)TOR 5 – 3 NYR · TOR 70% → 88% +18TOR 70% → 88%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 60%
- Fair odds
- NYR -146
- TOR +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.8 – 3.4 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −11 | TOR: Martin Jones (no track record yet) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +69 Elo | NYR 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 59.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.411th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.2 | Margin | +0.66th of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.1% | Shot share | 48.8%21st of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 91.3%10th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Road vs home | 8–21st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.