Los Angeles Kings at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Phillip DanaultGoals1
- Anze KopitarAssists1
- Phillip DanaultPoints1
Rangers- Jonny BrodzinskiGoals1
- Vincent TrocheckAssists3
- Vincent TrocheckPoints3
Scoring summary
- P315:24Will Cuylle Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (19), Jonny Brodzinski (5)1–4
- P311:32Jonny Brodzinski Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (18), Adam Fox (14)1–3
- P36:37Phillip Danault Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Adrian Kempe (17), Anze Kopitar (15)1–2
- P217:27Jimmy Vesey Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Nick Bonino (3)0–2
- P28:27Mika Zibanejad Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (17), Artemi Panarin (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:27Mika Zibanejad Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (17), Artemi Panarin (22)LA 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 54% → 73% +19NYR 54% → 73%+19 pts
- P217:27Jimmy Vesey Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Nick Bonino (3)LA 0 – 2 NYR · NYR 75% → 90% +15NYR 75% → 90%+15 pts
- P36:37Phillip Danault Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Adrian Kempe (17), Anze Kopitar (15)LA 1 – 2 NYR · LA 5% → 20% +15LA 5% → 20%+15 pts
- P311:32Jonny Brodzinski Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (18), Adam Fox (14)LA 1 – 3 NYR · NYR 85% → 98% +13NYR 85% → 98%+13 pts
- P315:24Will Cuylle Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (19), Jonny Brodzinski (5)LA 1 – 4 NYR · NYR >99% → >99% +0NYR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 56%
- Fair odds
- NYR -124
- LA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.0 – 3.3 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | NYR and LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −13 | +2 | LA: Pheonix Copley: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +44 Elo | NYR 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 31 |
| 1st of 312.3 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+1.3 | Margin | +0.58th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3155.7% | Shot share | 48.8%22nd of 31 |
| 4th of 3192.0% | Save percentage | 91.1%11th of 31 |
| 1st of 317–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 1st of 319–1 | Road vs home | 7–21st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.