Columbus Blue Jackets at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Kirill MarchenkoGoals3
- Johnny GaudreauAssists2
- Kirill MarchenkoPoints3
Sabres- Dylan CozensGoals1
- Dylan CozensAssists1
- Rasmus DahlinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P310:59Kent Johnson Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (9), Emil Bemstrom (4)9–4
- P38:30Cole Sillinger Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Zach Werenski (24), Kent Johnson (7)8–4
- P37:51Dylan Cozens Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (7), JJ Peterka (11)7–4
- P32:57Tage Thompson Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (19), Alex Tuch (11)7–3
- P218:54Kyle Okposo Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (19), Victor Olofsson (8)7–2
- P212:27Sean Kuraly Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Alexandre Texier (5), Brendan Gaunce (1)7–1
- P28:52Erik Gudbranson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexandre Texier (4), Sean Kuraly (5)6–1
- P27:55Kirill Marchenko Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Chinakhov (6), Ivan Provorov (17)5–1
- P27:37Kirill Marchenko Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Chinakhov (5), Andrew Peeke (4)4–1
- P119:48Kirill Marchenko Goal (11) Between Legs, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (14), Zach Werenski (23)3–1
- P114:40Adam Fantilli Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (13), Ivan Provorov (16)2–1
- P110:35Johnny Gaudreau Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (10)1–1
- P10:30Rasmus Dahlin Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (12), Casey Mittelstadt (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:30Rasmus Dahlin Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (12), Casey Mittelstadt (18)CBJ 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 56% → 70% +14BUF 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P110:35Johnny Gaudreau Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (10)CBJ 1 – 1 BUF · CBJ 30% → 45% +15CBJ 30% → 45%+15 pts
- P114:40Adam Fantilli Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (13), Ivan Provorov (16)CBJ 2 – 1 BUF · CBJ 45% → 62% +17CBJ 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P119:48Kirill Marchenko Goal (11) Between Legs, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (14), Zach Werenski (23)CBJ 3 – 1 BUF · CBJ 63% → 78% +15CBJ 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P27:37Kirill Marchenko Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Chinakhov (5), Andrew Peeke (4)CBJ 4 – 1 BUF · CBJ 81% → 92% +10CBJ 81% → 92%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 59%
- Fair odds
- BUF -126
- CBJ +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.3 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +1 | CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · BUF: Devon Levi: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +63 Elo | BUF 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 31 |
| 30th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 3.420th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.6 | Margin | −0.525th of 31 |
| 28th of 3145.9% | Shot share | 49.9%16th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 89.2%27th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 30th of 313–11 | Road vs home | 5–827th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.