Buffalo Sabres at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Dylan CozensGoals1
- Dylan CozensAssists2
- Dylan CozensPoints3
Golden Knights- Ivan BarbashevGoals1
- Paul CotterAssists1
- Ivan BarbashevPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:19Casey Mittelstadt Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (11), Rasmus Dahlin (18)5–2
- P311:12Alex Tuch Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (6)4–2
- P39:29Zach Benson Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Alex Tuch (10), Mattias Samuelsson (3)3–2
- P35:01Casey Mittelstadt Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (10), Connor Clifton (7)2–2
- P33:22Jack Eichel Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Paul Cotter (7)1–2
- P213:44Ivan Barbashev Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (8)1–1
- P27:42Dylan Cozens Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (17)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:42Dylan Cozens Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (17)BUF 1 – 0 VGK · BUF 45% → 65% +19BUF 45% → 65%+19 pts
- P213:44Ivan Barbashev Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (8)BUF 1 – 1 VGK · VGK 33% → 54% +21VGK 33% → 54%+21 pts
- P33:22Jack Eichel Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Paul Cotter (7)BUF 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 54% → 78% +25VGK 54% → 78%+25 pts
- P35:01Casey Mittelstadt Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (10), Connor Clifton (7)BUF 2 – 2 VGK · BUF 21% → 47% +26BUF 21% → 47%+26 pts
- P39:29Zach Benson Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Alex Tuch (10), Mattias Samuelsson (3)BUF 3 – 2 VGK · BUF 47% → 79% +32BUF 47% → 79%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 63%
- Fair odds
- VGK -131
- BUF +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.9 – 3.3 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −2 | BUF: Devon Levi: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +96 Elo | VGK 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 56.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.65th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.7 | Margin | +1.22nd of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.2% | Shot share | 52.1%9th of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.0% | Save percentage | 92.3%2nd of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 21st of 316–10 | Road vs home | 11–31st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.