Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Yegor SharangovichGoals2
- Nazem KadriAssists1
- Yegor SharangovichPoints2
Golden Knights- Mark StoneGoals2
- Jonathan MarchessaultAssists3
- Mark StonePoints4
Scoring summary
- OT1:11Mark Stone Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (21), Alex Pietrangelo (13)4–5
- P319:00Yegor Sharangovich Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Noah Hanifin (10), Nazem Kadri (14)4–4
- P316:14William Karlsson Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (12), Jonathan Marchessault (9)3–4
- P36:00Mark Stone Goal (9) Backhand, assists: William Karlsson (15), Jonathan Marchessault (8)3–3
- P217:58Yegor Sharangovich Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (11)3–2
- P25:20Ivan Barbashev Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (19)2–2
- P22:37Nazem Kadri Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Connor Zary (8), Martin Pospisil (3)2–1
- P113:33Chandler Stephenson Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (7), Mark Stone (18)1–1
- P16:27MacKenzie Weegar Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (9), Blake Coleman (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P217:58Yegor Sharangovich Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (11)CGY 3 – 2 VGK · CGY 43% → 67% +23CGY 43% → 67%+23 pts
- P36:00Mark Stone Goal (9) Backhand, assists: William Karlsson (15), Jonathan Marchessault (8)CGY 3 – 3 VGK · VGK 27% → 55% +29VGK 27% → 55%+29 pts
- P316:14William Karlsson Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (12), Jonathan Marchessault (9)CGY 3 – 4 VGK · VGK 53% → 94% +41VGK 53% → 94%+41 pts
- P319:00Yegor Sharangovich Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Noah Hanifin (10), Nazem Kadri (14)CGY 4 – 4 VGK · CGY <1% → 49% +48CGY <1% → 49%+48 pts
- OT1:11Mark Stone Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (21), Alex Pietrangelo (13)CGY 4 – 5 VGK · VGK 53% → 94% +41VGK 53% → 94%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 67%
- Fair odds
- VGK -155
- CGY +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.8 – 3.4 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CGY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +1 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +121 Elo | VGK 66.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 60.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.65th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.42nd of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.6 | Margin | +1.22nd of 31 |
| 9th of 3151.9% | Shot share | 51.9%8th of 31 |
| 28th of 3188.9% | Save percentage | 92.5%1st of 31 |
| 22nd of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 23rd of 315–9 | Road vs home | 10–31st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CGY 1–0 VGK in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.