Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Blake ColemanGoals1
- Dennis GilbertAssists2
- Nazem KadriPoints2
Avalanche- Mikko RantanenGoals1
- Mikko RantanenAssists2
- Mikko RantanenPoints3
Scoring summary
- P315:30Nathan MacKinnon Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (13), Mikko Rantanen (21)5–6
- P313:31Mikko Rantanen Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (12), Cale Makar (28)5–5
- P311:20Ross Colton Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Manson (5), Bowen Byram (5)5–4
- P218:34Yegor Sharangovich Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Noah Hanifin (9), Rasmus Andersson (12)5–3
- P216:19Connor Zary Goal (6) Batted, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (10)4–3
- P214:57Ben Meyers Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Cogliano (5), Sam Malinski (2)3–3
- P213:21Blake Coleman Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (8), Dennis Gilbert (4)3–2
- P25:14Andrew Mangiapane Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (13), Dennis Gilbert (3)2–2
- P21:43Cale Makar Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (20), Nathan MacKinnon (27)1–2
- P118:14Tomas Tatar Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Colton (6), Fredrik Olofsson (3)1–1
- P113:46Nazem Kadri Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P213:21Blake Coleman Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (8), Dennis Gilbert (4)CGY 3 – 2 COL · CGY 46% → 67% +21CGY 46% → 67%+21 pts
- P214:57Ben Meyers Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Cogliano (5), Sam Malinski (2)CGY 3 – 3 COL · COL 32% → 54% +22COL 32% → 54%+22 pts
- P216:19Connor Zary Goal (6) Batted, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (10)CGY 4 – 3 COL · CGY 46% → 69% +22CGY 46% → 69%+22 pts
- P313:31Mikko Rantanen Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (12), Cale Makar (28)CGY 5 – 5 COL · COL 14% → 52% +38COL 14% → 52%+38 pts
- P315:30Nathan MacKinnon Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (13), Mikko Rantanen (21)CGY 5 – 6 COL · COL 52% → 92% +40COL 52% → 92%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 61%
- Fair odds
- COL -128
- CGY +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.9 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −2 | CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +76 Elo | COL 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 31 |
| 24th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.6 | Margin | +0.57th of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.2% | Shot share | 52.3%7th of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.1% | Save percentage | 90.3%19th of 31 |
| 16th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 31 |
| 22nd of 315–8 | Road vs home | 9–46th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CGY 0–1 COL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.