San Jose Sharks at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Mike HoffmanGoals2
- Mikael GranlundAssists2
- Mike HoffmanPoints2
Golden Knights- Jonathan MarchessaultGoals2
- Chandler StephensonAssists1
- Jonathan MarchessaultPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Jonathan Marchessault Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- SO0:00Jack Eichel Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- P319:21Mike Hoffman Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (15), Alexander Barabanov (3)4–4
- P316:15Calen Addison Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Bailey (4), Filip Zadina (3)3–4
- P39:23Jonathan Marchessault Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (11), Zach Whitecloud (3)2–4
- P33:56Mike Hoffman Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Mikael Granlund (15), Kaapo Kahkonen (1)2–3
- P31:43Brayden McNabb Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (20), Kaedan Korczak (6)1–3
- P215:44Chandler Stephenson Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (12), Mark Stone (17)1–2
- P25:34Jonathan Marchessault Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Hutton (4)1–1
- P10:29Mario Ferraro Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Burroughs (4), Mikael Granlund (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:34Jonathan Marchessault Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Hutton (4)SJ 1 – 1 VGK · VGK 36% → 55% +19VGK 36% → 55%+19 pts
- P215:44Chandler Stephenson Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (12), Mark Stone (17)SJ 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 55% → 75% +21VGK 55% → 75%+21 pts
- P31:43Brayden McNabb Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (20), Kaedan Korczak (6)SJ 1 – 3 VGK · VGK 78% → 92% +15VGK 78% → 92%+15 pts
- P33:56Mike Hoffman Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Mikael Granlund (15), Kaapo Kahkonen (1)SJ 2 – 3 VGK · SJ 7% → 21% +15SJ 7% → 21%+15 pts
- P319:21Mike Hoffman Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (15), Alexander Barabanov (3)SJ 4 – 4 VGK · SJ <1% → 49% +49SJ <1% → 49%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 65%
- Fair odds
- VGK -133
- SJ +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.3 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −12 | SJ: Kaapo Kahkonen: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · VGK: Jiri Patera (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +108 Elo | VGK 65.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 57.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 312.1 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 31 |
| 31st of 314.1 | Goals allowed | 2.31st of 31 |
| 31st of 31−2.0 | Margin | +1.22nd of 31 |
| 31st of 3140.6% | Shot share | 52.3%7th of 31 |
| 24th of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 92.7%1st of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 30th of 313–11 | Road vs home | 9–32nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SJ 0–2 VGK in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.