Buffalo Sabres at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Zach BensonGoals1
- JJ PeterkaAssists1
- Zach BensonPoints1
Avalanche- Valeri NichushkinGoals2
- Mikko RantanenAssists2
- Mikko RantanenPoints3
Scoring summary
- P313:11Valeri Nichushkin Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (29), Mikko Rantanen (23)1–5
- P32:40Sam Malinski Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Johnson (4), Jonathan Drouin (6)1–4
- P118:38Zach Benson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (17), JJ Peterka (10)1–3
- P111:55Miles Wood Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Malinski (3)0–3
- P110:28Valeri Nichushkin Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Fredrik Olofsson (4), Mikko Rantanen (22)0–2
- P15:25Mikko Rantanen Goal (14) Wrap-around, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (28), Cale Makar (29)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:25Mikko Rantanen Goal (14) Wrap-around, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (28), Cale Makar (29)BUF 0 – 1 COL · COL 55% → 70% +14COL 55% → 70%+14 pts
- P110:28Valeri Nichushkin Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Fredrik Olofsson (4), Mikko Rantanen (22)BUF 0 – 2 COL · COL 70% → 82% +12COL 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P111:55Miles Wood Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Malinski (3)BUF 0 – 3 COL · COL 83% → 91% +8COL 83% → 91%+8 pts
- P118:38Zach Benson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (17), JJ Peterka (10)BUF 1 – 3 COL · BUF 8% → 16% +8BUF 8% → 16%+8 pts
- P32:40Sam Malinski Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Johnson (4), Jonathan Drouin (6)BUF 1 – 4 COL · COL 92% → 98% +6COL 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 59%
- Fair odds
- COL -126
- BUF +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.0 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −2 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Ivan Prosvetov: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +60 Elo | COL 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.65th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.112th of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.5 | Margin | +0.55th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.1% | Shot share | 52.4%7th of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.2% | Save percentage | 90.0%20th of 31 |
| 27th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 22nd of 316–9 | Road vs home | 10–46th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BUF 1–0 COL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.