Winnipeg Jets at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Nikolaj EhlersGoals3
- Nikolaj EhlersAssists1
- Nikolaj EhlersPoints4
Blue Jackets- Sean KuralyGoals1
- Kirill MarchenkoAssists1
- Sean KuralyPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:54Gabriel Vilardi Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (9), Josh Morrissey (11)6–2
- P311:39Josh Morrissey Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (8), Nikolaj Ehlers (8)5–2
- P218:51Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P216:30Sean Monahan Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Zach Werenski (6), Kirill Marchenko (8)3–2
- P22:20Mason Appleton Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Neal Pionk (10), Adam Lowry (7)3–1
- P115:14Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: none2–1
- P111:02Sean Kuraly Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (2)1–1
- P15:13Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Colin Miller (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:13Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Colin Miller (4)WPG 1 – 0 CBJ · WPG 58% → 72% +14WPG 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P111:02Sean Kuraly Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (2)WPG 1 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 28% → 43% +15CBJ 28% → 43%+15 pts
- P115:14Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: noneWPG 2 – 1 CBJ · WPG 57% → 72% +16WPG 57% → 72%+16 pts
- P216:30Sean Monahan Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Zach Werenski (6), Kirill Marchenko (8)WPG 3 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 10% → 24% +14CBJ 10% → 24%+14 pts
- P218:51Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: noneWPG 4 – 2 CBJ · WPG 77% → 91% +14WPG 77% → 91%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 58%
- ML WPG -150 / CBJ +130
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- WPG: Elo 52.0%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- WPG -138
- CBJ +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.5 – 3.0 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −27 | +4 | WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.67 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +14 Elo | WPG 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 58.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.6 | Goals scored | 3.97th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+2.2 | Margin | +1.15th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.3% | Shot share | 50.5%13th of 32 |
| 4th of 3292.2% | Save percentage | 90.2%12th of 32 |
| 1st of 325–0 | Road vs home | 4–28th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–5 | 8–1 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–1 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | — |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 8–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–4 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 2–0 CBJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.