Minnesota Wild at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals1
- Kirill KaprizovAssists1
- Kirill KaprizovPoints2
Blue Jackets- Egor ChinakhovGoals1
- Sean MonahanAssists1
- Egor ChinakhovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:35Yegor Chinakhov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (3), David Jiricek (1)3–1
- P38:26Mats Zuccarello Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (6), Jon Merrill (1)3–0
- P32:52Kirill Kaprizov Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Brock Faber (3), Matt Boldy (4)2–0
- P112:40Marco Rossi Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Yakov Trenin (1), Marcus Foligno (1)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:40Marco Rossi Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Yakov Trenin (1), Marcus Foligno (1)MIN 1 – 0 CBJ · MIN 61% → 75% +14MIN 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P32:52Kirill Kaprizov Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Brock Faber (3), Matt Boldy (4)MIN 2 – 0 CBJ · MIN 80% → 94% +13MIN 80% → 94%+13 pts
- P38:26Mats Zuccarello Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (6), Jon Merrill (1)MIN 3 – 0 CBJ · MIN 96% → >99% +3MIN 96% → >99%+3 pts
- P318:35Yegor Chinakhov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (3), David Jiricek (1)MIN 3 – 1 CBJ · CBJ <1% → <1% +0CBJ <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 62%
- ML MIN -185 / CBJ +155
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 51.1%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -166
- CBJ +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.6 – 2.9 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | 0 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +7 Elo | MIN 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 58.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 4.34th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.822nd of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.510th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.4% | Shot share | 53.8%7th of 32 |
| 5th of 3293.1% | Save percentage | 85.3%30th of 32 |
| 9th of 311–1 | Road vs home | 1–114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 2–1 CBJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.