Columbus Blue Jackets at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Sean MonahanGoals1
- Sean MonahanAssists2
- Sean MonahanPoints3
Avalanche- Ross ColtonGoals1
- Ross ColtonAssists1
- Ross ColtonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:48Sean Monahan Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (2), Yegor Chinakhov (3)6–4
- P318:40Ross Colton Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (3), Cale Makar (4)5–4
- P29:49Yegor Chinakhov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (2), Kirill Marchenko (1)5–3
- P24:33Kirill Marchenko Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Damon Severson (2)4–3
- P23:42Casey Mittelstadt Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Ross Colton (1), Cale Makar (3)3–3
- P22:11Miles Wood Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Parker Kelly (1), Calvin de Haan (1)3–2
- P21:56Adam Fantilli Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Labanc (1), Daniil Tarasov (1)3–1
- P119:52Nathan MacKinnon Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Ivan Ivan (1), Mikko Rantanen (1)2–1
- P17:45Kent Johnson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Christiansen (1)2–0
- P16:38Zach Werenski Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Yegor Chinakhov (2), Sean Monahan (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:56Adam Fantilli Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Labanc (1), Daniil Tarasov (1)CBJ 3 – 1 COL · CBJ 47% → 65% +18CBJ 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P22:11Miles Wood Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Parker Kelly (1), Calvin de Haan (1)CBJ 3 – 2 COL · COL 35% → 53% +18COL 35% → 53%+18 pts
- P23:42Casey Mittelstadt Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Ross Colton (1), Cale Makar (3)CBJ 3 – 3 COL · COL 52% → 70% +18COL 52% → 70%+18 pts
- P24:33Kirill Marchenko Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Damon Severson (2)CBJ 4 – 3 COL · CBJ 30% → 49% +18CBJ 30% → 49%+18 pts
- P29:49Yegor Chinakhov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (2), Kirill Marchenko (1)CBJ 5 – 3 COL · CBJ 52% → 71% +19CBJ 52% → 71%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- COL 75%
- ML CBJ +280 / COL -350
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.2 pts
- COL: Elo 64.5%, market 74.7%
- Fair odds
- COL -296
- CBJ +296 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.5 – 4.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −7 | CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +104 Elo | COL 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 59.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 74.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.71st of 31 |
| 29th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.7 | Margin | +0.67th of 31 |
| 26th of 3146.5% | Shot share | 52.6%6th of 31 |
| 20th of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 90.3%18th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 29th of 3110–30 | Road vs home | 29–101st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CBJ 1–1 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.