Colorado Avalanche at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Chris WagnerGoals1
- Sean WalkerAssists1
- Chris WagnerPoints1
Blue Jackets- Alexander NylanderGoals2
- Erik GudbransonAssists2
- Alexander NylanderPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:27Cole Sillinger Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Alexandre Texier (16), Kirill Marchenko (17)1–4
- P34:39Chris Wagner Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Sean Walker (18), Artturi Lehkonen (14)1–3
- P218:03Alex Nylander Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Jake Bean (9), Erik Gudbranson (17)0–3
- P214:12Alex Nylander Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (15), Ivan Provorov (26)0–2
- P29:35Kirill Marchenko Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Erik Gudbranson (16), Johnny Gaudreau (45)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:35Kirill Marchenko Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Erik Gudbranson (16), Johnny Gaudreau (45)COL 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 51% → 71% +19CBJ 51% → 71%+19 pts
- P214:12Alex Nylander Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (15), Ivan Provorov (26)COL 0 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 72% → 87% +15CBJ 72% → 87%+15 pts
- P218:03Alex Nylander Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Jake Bean (9), Erik Gudbranson (17)COL 0 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 89% → 97% +8CBJ 89% → 97%+8 pts
- P34:39Chris Wagner Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Sean Walker (18), Artturi Lehkonen (14)COL 1 – 3 CBJ · COL 1% → 7% +6COL 1% → 7%+6 pts
- P318:27Cole Sillinger Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Alexandre Texier (16), Kirill Marchenko (17)COL 1 – 4 CBJ · CBJ >99% → >99% +0CBJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 38%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -107
- COL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 3.1 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +1 | COL: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +85 Elo | COL 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 51.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.8 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 31 |
| 13th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.729th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+0.8 | Margin | −0.828th of 31 |
| 6th of 3152.9% | Shot share | 47.1%24th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 89.9%22nd of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 31 |
| 13th of 3118–17 | Road vs home | 14–2227th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–0 CBJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.