New York Rangers at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Kaapo KakkoGoals1
- Artemi PanarinAssists1
- Chris KreiderPoints1
Avalanche- Devon ToewsGoals1
- Brandon DuhaimeAssists1
- Devon ToewsPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Vincent Trocheck Goal Wrist Shot2–0
- SO0:00Artemi Panarin Goal Wrist Shot2–0
- P312:47Devon Toews Goal (12) , assists: none2–2
- P39:35Chris Kreider Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (48), Artemi Panarin (60)2–1
- P32:59Kaapo Kakko Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P219:27Casey Mittelstadt Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Duhaime (7), Josh Manson (15)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P219:27Casey Mittelstadt Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Duhaime (7), Josh Manson (15)NYR 0 – 1 COL · COL 53% → 76% +23COL 53% → 76%+23 pts
- P32:59Kaapo Kakko Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYR 1 – 1 COL · NYR 22% → 47% +25NYR 22% → 47%+25 pts
- P39:35Chris Kreider Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (48), Artemi Panarin (60)NYR 2 – 1 COL · NYR 48% → 79% +32NYR 48% → 79%+32 pts
- P312:47Devon Toews Goal (12) , assists: noneNYR 2 – 2 COL · COL 16% → 52% +36COL 16% → 52%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 56%
- Fair odds
- COL -124
- NYR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +5 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +44 Elo | COL 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.81st of 31 |
| 7th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.82nd of 31 |
| 17th of 3150.2% | Shot share | 52.8%6th of 31 |
| 6th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 90.6%12th of 31 |
| 2nd of 318–2 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 31 |
| 4th of 3121–15 | Road vs home | 26–71st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYR 1–0 COL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.