New York Rangers at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals3
- Mika ZibanejadAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints3
Bruins- Justin BrazeauGoals1
- Justin BrazeauAssists1
- Justin BrazeauPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:08Artemi Panarin Goal (41) Backhand, assists: Adam Fox (46)5–2
- P317:57Mika Zibanejad Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (32), Vincent Trocheck (42)4–2
- P33:57Adam Fox Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (24), Mika Zibanejad (37)3–2
- P33:17Justin Brazeau Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (35), Jesper Boqvist (8)2–2
- P219:25Artemi Panarin Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P27:58Artemi Panarin Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: Braden Schneider (13), Alexis Lafrenière (25)1–1
- P18:04Jake DeBrusk Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Trent Frederic (21), Justin Brazeau (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:04Jake DeBrusk Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Trent Frederic (21), Justin Brazeau (2)NYR 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 54% → 69% +15BOS 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P27:58Artemi Panarin Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: Braden Schneider (13), Alexis Lafrenière (25)NYR 1 – 1 BOS · NYR 28% → 47% +19NYR 28% → 47%+19 pts
- P219:25Artemi Panarin Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYR 2 – 1 BOS · NYR 47% → 71% +24NYR 47% → 71%+24 pts
- P33:17Justin Brazeau Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (35), Jesper Boqvist (8)NYR 2 – 2 BOS · BOS 26% → 52% +26BOS 26% → 52%+26 pts
- P33:57Adam Fox Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (24), Mika Zibanejad (37)NYR 3 – 2 BOS · NYR 48% → 74% +26NYR 48% → 74%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 52%
- Fair odds
- BOS -120
- NYR +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −2 | NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +15 Elo | BOS 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 31 |
| 7th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.67th of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.3% | Shot share | 49.0%20th of 31 |
| 6th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 91.6%3rd of 31 |
| 9th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 7th of 3120–15 | Road vs home | 22–1410th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYR 2–0 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.