Winnipeg Jets at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals3
- Sean MonahanAssists2
- Mark ScheifelePoints3
Rangers- Alexis LafreniereGoals1
- Alexis LafreniereAssists1
- Alexis LafrenierePoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:51Mark Scheifele Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (49), Sean Monahan (29)4–2
- P318:06Alexis Lafrenière Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (45), Vincent Trocheck (41)3–2
- P217:55Mark Scheifele Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P212:18Kyle Connor Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (28), Tyler Toffoli (20)2–1
- P29:30Alexander Wennberg Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (24), Jack Roslovic (20)1–1
- P24:04Mark Scheifele Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (14), Nate Schmidt (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:04Mark Scheifele Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (14), Nate Schmidt (10)WPG 1 – 0 NYR · WPG 46% → 64% +18WPG 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P29:30Alexander Wennberg Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (24), Jack Roslovic (20)WPG 1 – 1 NYR · NYR 34% → 54% +20NYR 34% → 54%+20 pts
- P212:18Kyle Connor Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (28), Tyler Toffoli (20)WPG 2 – 1 NYR · WPG 46% → 67% +21WPG 46% → 67%+21 pts
- P217:55Mark Scheifele Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: noneWPG 3 – 1 NYR · WPG 70% → 87% +17WPG 70% → 87%+17 pts
- P318:06Alexis Lafrenière Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (45), Vincent Trocheck (41)WPG 3 – 2 NYR · NYR <1% → 2% +2NYR <1% → 2%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 57%
- Fair odds
- NYR -124
- WPG +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.9 – 3.2 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +1 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +46 Elo | NYR 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 31 |
| 1st of 312.3 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.66th of 31 |
| 13th of 3151.0% | Shot share | 50.1%16th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.5% | Save percentage | 91.4%5th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 6th of 3118–13 | Road vs home | 23–82nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WPG 0–1 NYR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.