Winnipeg Jets at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets
Canucks- Pius SuterGoals1
- Quinn HughesAssists2
- Elias PetterssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:06Pius Suter Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–5
- P24:04Elias Pettersson Goal (31) Backhand, assists: Conor Garland (18), Quinn Hughes (63)0–4
- P117:00Phillip Di Giuseppe Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Teddy Blueger (19)0–3
- P113:47Nils Hoglander Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Pius Suter (13), Elias Pettersson (48)0–2
- P12:05J.T. Miller Goal (32) Poke, assists: Nils Hoglander (11), Quinn Hughes (62)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:05J.T. Miller Goal (32) Poke, assists: Nils Hoglander (11), Quinn Hughes (62)WPG 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 59% → 73% +14VAN 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P113:47Nils Hoglander Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Pius Suter (13), Elias Pettersson (48)WPG 0 – 2 VAN · VAN 73% → 85% +12VAN 73% → 85%+12 pts
- P117:00Phillip Di Giuseppe Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Teddy Blueger (19)WPG 0 – 3 VAN · VAN 86% → 93% +8VAN 86% → 93%+8 pts
- P24:04Elias Pettersson Goal (31) Backhand, assists: Conor Garland (18), Quinn Hughes (63)WPG 0 – 4 VAN · VAN 94% → 98% +4VAN 94% → 98%+4 pts
- P315:06Pius Suter Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: noneWPG 0 – 5 VAN · VAN >99% → >99% +0VAN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 60%
- Fair odds
- VAN -146
- WPG +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.8 – 3.3 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WPG on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +3 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +69 Elo | VAN 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 59.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.54th of 31 |
| 1st of 312.4 | Goals allowed | 2.86th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.82nd of 31 |
| 14th of 3151.2% | Shot share | 49.1%20th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.5% | Save percentage | 91.0%8th of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 4th of 3117–12 | Road vs home | 19–93rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WPG 1–0 VAN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.