Pittsburgh Penguins at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Rickard RakellGoals2
- Sidney CrosbyAssists2
- Rickard RakellPoints2
Canucks- J.T. MillerGoals1
- J.T. MillerAssists1
- J.T. MillerPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:42Erik Karlsson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (9), Reilly Smith (15)4–3
- P39:45Lars Eller Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Valtteri Puustinen (10), Kris Letang (30)3–3
- P210:05J.T. Miller Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (46), Thatcher Demko (1)2–3
- P29:36Rickard Rakell Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Sidney Crosby (30), Evgeni Malkin (29)2–2
- P22:13Rickard Rakell Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (29)1–2
- P117:43Brock Boeser Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (51), Filip Hronek (39)0–2
- P110:23Nils Hoglander Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Myers (19), Ilya Mikheyev (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:23Nils Hoglander Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Myers (19), Ilya Mikheyev (16)PIT 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 56% → 71% +15VAN 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P29:36Rickard Rakell Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Sidney Crosby (30), Evgeni Malkin (29)PIT 2 – 2 VAN · PIT 27% → 46% +19PIT 27% → 46%+19 pts
- P210:05J.T. Miller Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (46), Thatcher Demko (1)PIT 2 – 3 VAN · VAN 54% → 73% +19VAN 54% → 73%+19 pts
- P39:45Lars Eller Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Valtteri Puustinen (10), Kris Letang (30)PIT 3 – 3 VAN · PIT 17% → 47% +30PIT 17% → 47%+30 pts
- OT1:42Erik Karlsson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (9), Reilly Smith (15)PIT 4 – 3 VAN · PIT 49% → 94% +45PIT 49% → 94%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 60%
- Fair odds
- VAN -128
- PIT +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.9 – 3.3 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +1 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +74 Elo | VAN 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.73rd of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.91st of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.1% | Shot share | 48.6%22nd of 31 |
| 4th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 91.0%9th of 31 |
| 11th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3111–14 | Road vs home | 19–72nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 0–1 VAN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.