Boston Bruins at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Danton HeinenGoals1
- Justin BrazeauAssists1
- Danton HeinenPoints1
Canucks- Brock BoeserGoals2
- J.T. MillerAssists3
- J.T. MillerPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT1:34Brock Boeser Goal (33) Tip-In, assists: J.T. Miller (50), Quinn Hughes (58)2–3
- P318:49Filip Hronek Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (49), Elias Pettersson (45)2–2
- P312:49Brock Boeser Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (10), J.T. Miller (48)2–1
- P211:15Danton Heinen Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Trent Frederic (18), Morgan Geekie (17)2–0
- P25:27Jesper Boqvist Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Brazeau (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:27Jesper Boqvist Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Brazeau (1)BOS 1 – 0 VAN · BOS 46% → 65% +19BOS 46% → 65%+19 pts
- P211:15Danton Heinen Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Trent Frederic (18), Morgan Geekie (17)BOS 2 – 0 VAN · BOS 67% → 83% +16BOS 67% → 83%+16 pts
- P312:49Brock Boeser Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (10), J.T. Miller (48)BOS 2 – 1 VAN · VAN 2% → 16% +14VAN 2% → 16%+14 pts
- P318:49Filip Hronek Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (49), Elias Pettersson (45)BOS 2 – 2 VAN · VAN <1% → 51% +50VAN <1% → 51%+50 pts
- OT1:34Brock Boeser Goal (33) Tip-In, assists: J.T. Miller (50), Quinn Hughes (58)BOS 2 – 3 VAN · VAN 51% → 94% +43VAN 51% → 94%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 56%
- Fair odds
- VAN -124
- BOS +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.9 – 3.2 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | 0 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +44 Elo | VAN 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.72nd of 31 |
| 4th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.91st of 31 |
| 21st of 3149.2% | Shot share | 48.4%22nd of 31 |
| 3rd of 3191.7% | Save percentage | 91.0%9th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3116–11 | Road vs home | 18–73rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–0 VAN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.