Detroit Red Wings at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- J.T. CompherGoals1
- Christian FischerAssists1
- J.T. CompherPoints1
Canucks- Elias LindholmGoals2
- Elias PetterssonAssists3
- Elias PetterssonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P312:59Elias Lindholm Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (44)1–4
- P214:25J.T. Compher Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (12), Christian Fischer (10)1–3
- P212:51Nikita Zadorov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (43), Nils Hoglander (7)0–3
- P19:31Elias Lindholm Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (42)0–2
- P17:37J.T. Miller Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:37J.T. Miller Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDET 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 56% → 70% +15VAN 56% → 70%+15 pts
- P19:31Elias Lindholm Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (42)DET 0 – 2 VAN · VAN 71% → 83% +12VAN 71% → 83%+12 pts
- P212:51Nikita Zadorov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (43), Nils Hoglander (7)DET 0 – 3 VAN · VAN 88% → 96% +8VAN 88% → 96%+8 pts
- P214:25J.T. Compher Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (12), Christian Fischer (10)DET 1 – 3 VAN · DET 4% → 11% +7DET 4% → 11%+7 pts
- P312:59Elias Lindholm Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (44)DET 1 – 4 VAN · VAN 99% → >99% +1VAN 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 61%
- Fair odds
- VAN -128
- DET +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.9 – 3.2 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +3 | DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +75 Elo | VAN 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.73rd of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.2 | Margin | +1.11st of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.4% | Shot share | 48.5%22nd of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 91.5%6th of 31 |
| 9th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 31 |
| 12th of 3112–11 | Road vs home | 17–62nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–0 VAN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.