Vancouver Canucks at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- J.T. MillerGoals1
- Quinn HughesAssists1
- J.T. MillerPoints1
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- T.J. OshieAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT4:55J.T. Miller Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: none3–2
- P28:48Nils Hoglander Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Elias Pettersson (41), Quinn Hughes (53)2–2
- P27:37Alex Ovechkin Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (15), T.J. Oshie (6)1–2
- P111:09Conor Garland Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Juulsen (4)1–1
- P11:08Nic Dowd Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel (9), Rasmus Sandin (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:08Nic Dowd Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel (9), Rasmus Sandin (13)VAN 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 53% → 67% +14WSH 53% → 67%+14 pts
- P111:09Conor Garland Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Juulsen (4)VAN 1 – 1 WSH · VAN 32% → 48% +15VAN 32% → 48%+15 pts
- P27:37Alex Ovechkin Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (15), T.J. Oshie (6)VAN 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 52% → 71% +19WSH 52% → 71%+19 pts
- P28:48Nils Hoglander Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Elias Pettersson (41), Quinn Hughes (53)VAN 2 – 2 WSH · VAN 29% → 48% +19VAN 29% → 48%+19 pts
- OT4:55J.T. Miller Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: noneVAN 3 – 2 WSH · VAN 50% → 100% +50VAN 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 43%
- Fair odds
- WSH -111
- VAN +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | WSH and VAN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −9 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · WSH: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +51 Elo | VAN 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.7 | Goals scored | 2.529th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+1.1 | Margin | −0.626th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.2% | Shot share | 47.5%23rd of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 90.5%14th of 31 |
| 9th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 4th of 3116–12 | Road vs home | 13–1215th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.