Washington Capitals at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Dylan StromeGoals2
- Ethan BearAssists1
- Dylan StromePoints2
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals4
- Mikko RantanenAssists4
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints5
Scoring summary
- P317:37Dylan Strome Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (9), Ethan Bear (2)2–6
- P316:14Nathan MacKinnon Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (38), Ross Colton (14)1–6
- P310:20Mikko Rantanen Goal (27) Batted, assists: Jonathan Drouin (17), Nathan MacKinnon (52)1–5
- P37:26Dylan Strome Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Pacioretty (6), Alex Ovechkin (21)1–4
- P29:16Nathan MacKinnon Goal (29) Backhand, assists: Mikko Rantanen (37)0–4
- P27:00Nathan MacKinnon Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (46), Mikko Rantanen (36)0–3
- P22:39Nathan MacKinnon Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (35), Cale Makar (45)0–2
- P119:23Cale Makar Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Cogliano (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:23Cale Makar Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Cogliano (8)WSH 0 – 1 COL · COL 59% → 75% +16COL 59% → 75%+16 pts
- P22:39Nathan MacKinnon Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (35), Cale Makar (45)WSH 0 – 2 COL · COL 75% → 87% +12COL 75% → 87%+12 pts
- P27:00Nathan MacKinnon Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (46), Mikko Rantanen (36)WSH 0 – 3 COL · COL 88% → 95% +7COL 88% → 95%+7 pts
- P29:16Nathan MacKinnon Goal (29) Backhand, assists: Mikko Rantanen (37)WSH 0 – 4 COL · COL 96% → 99% +3COL 96% → 99%+3 pts
- P37:26Dylan Strome Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Pacioretty (6), Alex Ovechkin (21)WSH 1 – 4 COL · WSH <1% → <1% +1WSH <1% → <1%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 66%
- Fair odds
- COL -154
- WSH +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.8 – 3.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −2 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +113 Elo | COL 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 60.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 3.82nd of 31 |
| 10th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.217th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.5 | Margin | +0.65th of 31 |
| 25th of 3147.3% | Shot share | 52.4%6th of 31 |
| 11th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 89.6%24th of 31 |
| 22nd of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 19th of 319–11 | Road vs home | 17–51st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.