Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Mikko RantanenGoals2
- Samuel GirardAssists3
- Samuel GirardPoints3
Senators- Ridly GreigGoals2
- Claude GirouxAssists3
- Claude GirouxPoints3
Scoring summary
- P315:16Devon Toews Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none7–4
- P312:24Logan O'Connor Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Miles Wood (7), Samuel Girard (10)6–4
- P38:14Sam Malinski Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (9), Ryan Johansen (7)5–4
- P34:04Miles Wood Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Logan O'Connor (11), Devon Toews (19)4–4
- P216:18Mikko Rantanen Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (49), Samuel Girard (8)3–4
- P211:04Jake Sanderson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (25), Brady Tkachuk (16)2–4
- P27:21Ridly Greig Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (15), Jake Sanderson (16)2–3
- P22:27Jason Polin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Fredrik Olofsson (6), Sam Malinski (5)2–2
- P21:21Ridly Greig Goal (5) Poke, assists: Claude Giroux (24), Brady Tkachuk (14)1–2
- P110:07Mikko Rantanen Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (42), Nathan MacKinnon (48)1–1
- P19:29Drake Batherson Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (23), Thomas Chabot (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:21Ridly Greig Goal (5) Poke, assists: Claude Giroux (24), Brady Tkachuk (14)COL 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 56% → 73% +17OTT 56% → 73%+17 pts
- P22:27Jason Polin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Fredrik Olofsson (6), Sam Malinski (5)COL 2 – 2 OTT · COL 27% → 44% +17COL 27% → 44%+17 pts
- P27:21Ridly Greig Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (15), Jake Sanderson (16)COL 2 – 3 OTT · OTT 56% → 74% +18OTT 56% → 74%+18 pts
- P34:04Miles Wood Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Logan O'Connor (11), Devon Toews (19)COL 4 – 4 OTT · COL 21% → 46% +25COL 21% → 46%+25 pts
- P38:14Sam Malinski Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (9), Ryan Johansen (7)COL 5 – 4 OTT · COL 46% → 77% +30COL 46% → 77%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 53%
- Fair odds
- OTT -138
- COL +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.9 – 3.3 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | COL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +10 | COL: Justus Annunen (no track record yet) · OTT: Mads Sogaard (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +21 Elo | OTT 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 58.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.729th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.323rd of 31 |
| 6th of 3153.0% | Shot share | 51.4%10th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 88.5%31st of 31 |
| 3rd of 318–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 13th of 3110–9 | Road vs home | 9–1022nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–0 OTT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.