Ottawa Senators at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Dominik KubalikGoals1
- Ridly GreigAssists2
- Ridly GreigPoints2
Flames- Yegor SharangovichGoals2
- Nazem KadriAssists2
- Blake ColemanPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:12Blake Coleman Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (13)3–6
- P315:45Yegor Sharangovich Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (15), Nazem Kadri (19)3–5
- P38:57Blake Coleman Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (14), Nazem Kadri (18)3–4
- P30:47Noah Hanifin Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Martin Pospisil (6), Connor Zary (12)3–3
- P212:39Brady Tkachuk Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (22), Drake Batherson (17)3–2
- P23:50Yegor Sharangovich Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (15), Elias Lindholm (18)2–2
- P119:57Dominik Kubalik Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (9), Jakob Chychrun (19)2–1
- P14:53Connor Zary Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P14:09Jacob Bernard-Docker Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (17), Ridly Greig (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:57Dominik Kubalik Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (9), Jakob Chychrun (19)OTT 2 – 1 CGY · OTT 45% → 63% +18OTT 45% → 63%+18 pts
- P23:50Yegor Sharangovich Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (15), Elias Lindholm (18)OTT 2 – 2 CGY · CGY 36% → 55% +18CGY 36% → 55%+18 pts
- P212:39Brady Tkachuk Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (22), Drake Batherson (17)OTT 3 – 2 CGY · OTT 46% → 67% +21OTT 46% → 67%+21 pts
- P30:47Noah Hanifin Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Martin Pospisil (6), Connor Zary (12)OTT 3 – 3 CGY · CGY 29% → 53% +25CGY 29% → 53%+25 pts
- P38:57Blake Coleman Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (14), Nazem Kadri (18)OTT 3 – 4 CGY · CGY 53% → 82% +29CGY 53% → 82%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 60%
- Fair odds
- CGY -127
- OTT +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.0 – 3.3 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −14 | +10 | OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +68 Elo | CGY 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.320th of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.2 | Margin | −0.321st of 31 |
| 13th of 3151.2% | Shot share | 51.7%7th of 31 |
| 29th of 3188.9% | Save percentage | 89.8%21st of 31 |
| 24th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 28th of 314–10 | Road vs home | 9–814th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OTT 1–0 CGY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.