Calgary Flames at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- MacKenzie WeegarGoals1
- Blake ColemanAssists1
- Jonathan HuberdeauPoints1
Flyers- Morgan FrostGoals1
- Morgan FrostAssists1
- Morgan FrostPoints2
Scoring summary
- P32:27Travis Konecny Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (14), Cam York (9)2–3
- P216:06Sean Couturier Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (7), Egor Zamula (6)2–2
- P29:13MacKenzie Weegar Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Blake Coleman (15), Andrew Mangiapane (16)2–1
- P24:15Morgan Frost Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Walker (9), Tyson Foerster (10)1–1
- P21:55Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (17), Martin Pospisil (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:55Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (17), Martin Pospisil (4)CGY 1 – 0 PHI · CGY 46% → 64% +18CGY 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P24:15Morgan Frost Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Walker (9), Tyson Foerster (10)CGY 1 – 1 PHI · PHI 35% → 54% +19PHI 35% → 54%+19 pts
- P29:13MacKenzie Weegar Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Blake Coleman (15), Andrew Mangiapane (16)CGY 2 – 1 PHI · CGY 47% → 66% +20CGY 47% → 66%+20 pts
- P216:06Sean Couturier Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (7), Egor Zamula (6)CGY 2 – 2 PHI · PHI 31% → 53% +22PHI 31% → 53%+22 pts
- P32:27Travis Konecny Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (14), Cam York (9)CGY 2 – 3 PHI · PHI 53% → 77% +24PHI 53% → 77%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Fair odds
- PHI -121
- CGY +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.0 – 3.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −6 | CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · PHI: Carter Hart: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +27 Elo | PHI 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.115th of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.0% | Shot share | 53.4%5th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 90.6%13th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 22nd of 318–12 | Road vs home | 8–922nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CGY 1–0 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.