Seattle Kraken at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Kailer YamamotoGoals1
- Adam LarssonAssists1
- Kailer YamamotoPoints1
Flames- Nazem KadriGoals1
- Yegor SharangovichAssists1
- Nazem KadriPoints1
Scoring summary
- P36:00Alex Wennberg Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (8), Will Borgen (13)2–1
- P18:09Nazem Kadri Goal (9) Poke, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (11)1–1
- P12:24Kailer Yamamoto Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (24), Adam Larsson (8)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:24Kailer Yamamoto Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (24), Adam Larsson (8)SEA 1 – 0 CGY · SEA 45% → 59% +15SEA 45% → 59%+15 pts
- P18:09Nazem Kadri Goal (9) Poke, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (11)SEA 1 – 1 CGY · CGY 40% → 55% +16CGY 40% → 55%+16 pts
- P36:00Alex Wennberg Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (8), Will Borgen (13)SEA 2 – 1 CGY · SEA 47% → 75% +28SEA 47% → 75%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 58%
- Fair odds
- CGY -125
- SEA +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.0 – 3.3 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +6 | SEA: Chris Driedger (no track record yet) · CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +54 Elo | CGY 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 3.022nd of 31 |
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.418th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.5 | Margin | −0.424th of 31 |
| 13th of 3150.4% | Shot share | 51.5%10th of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 89.7%25th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 27th of 316–11 | Road vs home | 8–715th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 0–2 CGY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.