Seattle Kraken at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Vince DunnGoals1
- Vince DunnAssists2
- Vince DunnPoints3
Ducks- Frank VatranoGoals1
- Pavel MintyukovAssists1
- Frank VatranoPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:01Trevor Zegras Goal (2) Cradle, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (16), Troy Terry (13)3–2
- P38:25Tomas Tatar Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Vince Dunn (23), Matty Beniers (13)3–1
- P26:18Frank Vatrano Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: none2–1
- P116:24Vince Dunn Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Matty Beniers (12), Tomas Tatar (10)2–0
- P113:26Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (7), Vince Dunn (22)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:26Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (7), Vince Dunn (22)SEA 1 – 0 ANA · SEA 46% → 63% +16SEA 46% → 63%+16 pts
- P116:24Vince Dunn Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Matty Beniers (12), Tomas Tatar (10)SEA 2 – 0 ANA · SEA 63% → 78% +15SEA 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P26:18Frank Vatrano Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: noneSEA 2 – 1 ANA · ANA 19% → 34% +16ANA 19% → 34%+16 pts
- P38:25Tomas Tatar Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Vince Dunn (23), Matty Beniers (13)SEA 3 – 1 ANA · SEA 78% → 95% +16SEA 78% → 95%+16 pts
- P314:01Trevor Zegras Goal (2) Cradle, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (16), Troy Terry (13)SEA 3 – 2 ANA · ANA 1% → 13% +12ANA 1% → 13%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 51%
- Fair odds
- ANA -118
- SEA +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.0 – 3.3 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | −19 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.33 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.47 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +7 Elo | ANA 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 31 |
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.424th of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.5 | Margin | −0.829th of 31 |
| 13th of 3150.7% | Shot share | 47.4%26th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 90.0%19th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 31 |
| 27th of 315–11 | Road vs home | 4–1131st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.