Seattle Kraken at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Matty BeniersGoals1
- Matty BeniersAssists1
- Tomas TatarPoints2
Stars- Matt DucheneGoals2
- Joe PavelskiAssists2
- Matt DuchenePoints3
Scoring summary
- OT2:16Thomas Harley Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Matt Duchene (17), Jamie Benn (16)3–4
- P319:38Eeli Tolvanen Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Wennberg (9), Oliver Bjorkstrand (16)3–3
- P213:48Matty Beniers Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (12), Tomas Tatar (9)2–3
- P26:20Matt Duchene Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (16), Evgenii Dadonov (6)1–3
- P20:32Tomas Tatar Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (10)1–2
- P110:20Jason Robertson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (15), Roope Hintz (16)0–2
- P11:14Matt Duchene Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (13), Mason Marchment (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:14Matt Duchene Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (13), Mason Marchment (11)SEA 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 56% → 69% +14DAL 56% → 69%+14 pts
- P26:20Matt Duchene Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (16), Evgenii Dadonov (6)SEA 1 – 3 DAL · DAL 72% → 86% +14DAL 72% → 86%+14 pts
- P213:48Matty Beniers Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (12), Tomas Tatar (9)SEA 2 – 3 DAL · SEA 12% → 26% +14SEA 12% → 26%+14 pts
- P319:38Eeli Tolvanen Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Wennberg (9), Oliver Bjorkstrand (16)SEA 3 – 3 DAL · SEA <1% → 50% +50SEA <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT2:16Thomas Harley Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Matt Duchene (17), Jamie Benn (16)SEA 3 – 4 DAL · DAL 51% → 96% +45DAL 51% → 96%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 58%
- Fair odds
- DAL -125
- SEA +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.0 – 3.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +14 | −13 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.35 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · DAL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +55 Elo | DAL 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.213th of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.5 | Margin | +0.410th of 31 |
| 12th of 3150.8% | Shot share | 48.3%23rd of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 90.3%18th of 31 |
| 30th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 28th of 314–10 | Road vs home | 7–614th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.