Ottawa Senators at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Drake BathersonGoals2
- Jakob ChychrunAssists3
- Jakob ChychrunPoints3
Stars- Matt DucheneGoals1
- Matt DucheneAssists1
- Matt DuchenePoints2
Scoring summary
- P38:17Matt Duchene Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Mason Marchment (10), Tyler Seguin (11)4–5
- P37:33Miro Heiskanen Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (10), Evgenii Dadonov (5)4–4
- P211:21Thomas Harley Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (3)4–3
- P24:54Drake Batherson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (7), Tim Stützle (22)4–2
- P113:30Esa Lindell Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (15)3–2
- P113:20Josh Norris Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (15), Jakob Chychrun (15)3–1
- P111:46Joe Pavelski Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (15), Jason Robertson (18)2–1
- P12:51Drake Batherson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (14), Tim Stützle (21)2–0
- P11:16Travis Hamonic Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (13), Mathieu Joseph (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:30Esa Lindell Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (15)OTT 3 – 2 DAL · DAL 27% → 42% +15DAL 27% → 42%+15 pts
- P24:54Drake Batherson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (7), Tim Stützle (22)OTT 4 – 2 DAL · OTT 62% → 78% +16OTT 62% → 78%+16 pts
- P211:21Thomas Harley Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (3)OTT 4 – 3 DAL · DAL 19% → 36% +17DAL 19% → 36%+17 pts
- P37:33Miro Heiskanen Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (10), Evgenii Dadonov (5)OTT 4 – 4 DAL · DAL 24% → 54% +30DAL 24% → 54%+30 pts
- P38:17Matt Duchene Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Mason Marchment (10), Tyler Seguin (11)OTT 4 – 5 DAL · DAL 54% → 82% +28DAL 54% → 82%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 60%
- Fair odds
- DAL -146
- OTT +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.9 – 3.4 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −5 | OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +68 Elo | DAL 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 59.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.113th of 31 |
| 16th of 31+0.1 | Margin | +0.49th of 31 |
| 6th of 3152.5% | Shot share | 48.7%22nd of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.3% | Save percentage | 90.5%15th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 20th of 313–4 | Road vs home | 6–617th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.