Ottawa Senators at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Mathieu JosephGoals1
- Jakob ChychrunAssists2
- Jakob ChychrunPoints2
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals2
- Justin FaulkAssists2
- Robert ThomasPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:26Mathieu Joseph Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Ridly Greig (6), Jakob Chychrun (12)2–4
- P37:07Pavel Buchnevich Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (13), Robert Thomas (18)1–4
- P210:22Dominik Kubalik Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Drake Batherson (12), Jakob Chychrun (11)1–3
- P28:42Brandon Saad Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Leddy (8), Kasperi Kapanen (7)0–3
- P25:17Robert Thomas Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Justin Faulk (14), Torey Krug (12)0–2
- P18:20Robert Thomas Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (13), Pavel Buchnevich (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:20Robert Thomas Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (13), Pavel Buchnevich (13)OTT 0 – 1 STL · STL 54% → 69% +15STL 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P25:17Robert Thomas Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Justin Faulk (14), Torey Krug (12)OTT 0 – 2 STL · STL 71% → 85% +14STL 71% → 85%+14 pts
- P28:42Brandon Saad Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Leddy (8), Kasperi Kapanen (7)OTT 0 – 3 STL · STL 86% → 95% +8STL 86% → 95%+8 pts
- P210:22Dominik Kubalik Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Drake Batherson (12), Jakob Chychrun (11)OTT 1 – 3 STL · OTT 5% → 13% +8OTT 5% → 13%+8 pts
- P37:07Pavel Buchnevich Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (13), Robert Thomas (18)OTT 1 – 4 STL · STL 95% → >99% +4STL 95% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Fair odds
- STL -120
- OTT +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.0 – 3.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −8 | OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +20 Elo | STL 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.317th of 31 |
| 15th of 31+0.2 | Margin | −0.423rd of 31 |
| 6th of 3152.5% | Shot share | 47.8%25th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 90.9%11th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 15th of 313–3 | Road vs home | 6–410th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.