Chicago Blackhawks at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Taylor RaddyshGoals1
- Taylor RaddyshPoints1
Kraken- Kailer YamamotoGoals2
- Oliver BjorkstrandAssists2
- Oliver BjorkstrandPoints3
Scoring summary
- P33:28Pierre-Edouard Bellemare Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Devin Shore (2), Brian Dumoulin (4)1–7
- P33:07Jared McCann Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (3), Oliver Bjorkstrand (15)1–6
- P217:09Eeli Tolvanen Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (8), Oliver Bjorkstrand (14)1–5
- P214:43Tye Kartye Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Will Borgen (11), Brandon Tanev (1)1–4
- P24:22Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (2)1–3
- P23:03Taylor Raddysh Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (7)1–2
- P117:47Kailer Yamamoto Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (20), Adam Larsson (7)0–2
- P13:07Kailer Yamamoto Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Borgen (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:07Kailer Yamamoto Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Borgen (10)CHI 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 55% → 69% +14SEA 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P117:47Kailer Yamamoto Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (20), Adam Larsson (7)CHI 0 – 2 SEA · SEA 71% → 84% +13SEA 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P23:03Taylor Raddysh Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (7)CHI 1 – 2 SEA · CHI 15% → 28% +13CHI 15% → 28%+13 pts
- P24:22Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (2)CHI 1 – 3 SEA · SEA 72% → 85% +14SEA 72% → 85%+14 pts
- P214:43Tye Kartye Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Will Borgen (11), Brandon Tanev (1)CHI 1 – 4 SEA · SEA 89% → 96% +7SEA 89% → 96%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 57%
- Fair odds
- SEA -124
- CHI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 3.0 – 3.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +12 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.31 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +50 Elo | SEA 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.4 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 31 |
| 30th of 31−0.9 | Margin | −0.828th of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.5% | Shot share | 51.2%12th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 89.3%26th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 31 |
| 28th of 314–10 | Road vs home | 5–1029th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 1–0 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.