Dallas Stars at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Evgenii DadonovGoals1
- Radek FaksaAssists1
- Evgenii DadonovPoints1
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals1
- Jordan KyrouAssists2
- Jordan KyrouPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT0:37Colton Parayko Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (15), Robert Thomas (20)3–4
- P313:09Evgenii Dadonov Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Miro Heiskanen (17), Thomas Harley (5)3–3
- P216:46Kevin Hayes Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (4), Torey Krug (14)2–3
- P21:36Jordan Kyrou Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Torey Krug (13), Robert Thomas (19)2–2
- P112:53Brandon Saad Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (14), Kevin Hayes (7)2–1
- P16:47Ty Dellandrea Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (4), Sam Steel (6)2–0
- P14:58Mason Marchment Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (12), Matt Duchene (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:58Mason Marchment Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (12), Matt Duchene (16)DAL 1 – 0 STL · DAL 42% → 57% +15DAL 42% → 57%+15 pts
- P21:36Jordan Kyrou Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Torey Krug (13), Robert Thomas (19)DAL 2 – 2 STL · STL 39% → 57% +18STL 39% → 57%+18 pts
- P216:46Kevin Hayes Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (4), Torey Krug (14)DAL 2 – 3 STL · STL 55% → 77% +21STL 55% → 77%+21 pts
- P313:09Evgenii Dadonov Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Miro Heiskanen (17), Thomas Harley (5)DAL 3 – 3 STL · DAL 12% → 47% +35DAL 12% → 47%+35 pts
- OT0:37Colton Parayko Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (15), Robert Thomas (20)DAL 3 – 4 STL · STL 52% → 92% +40STL 52% → 92%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 57%
- Fair odds
- STL -143
- DAL +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.9 – 3.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −12 | −5 | DAL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +48 Elo | STL 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 58.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 31 |
| 13th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.215th of 31 |
| 9th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −0.323rd of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.6% | Shot share | 47.7%25th of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 91.1%10th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 4th of 319–5 | Road vs home | 7–49th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–0 STL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.