Los Angeles Kings at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Trevor MooreGoals1
- Phillip DanaultAssists1
- Anze KopitarPoints1
Kraken- Adam LarssonGoals1
- Devin ShoreAssists1
- Adam LarssonPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Carl Grundstrom Goal Wrist Shot4–3
- SO0:00Trevor Lewis Goal Backhand4–3
- SO0:00Matty Beniers Goal Wrist Shot4–3
- SO0:00Arthur Kaliyev Goal Backhand4–3
- SO0:00Yanni Gourde Goal Wrist Shot4–3
- SO0:00Adrian Kempe Goal Wrist Shot4–3
- SO0:00Kailer Yamamoto Goal Wrist Shot4–3
- P317:31Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (4), Jared McCann (6)2–2
- P217:16Anze Kopitar Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (15), Adrian Kempe (18)2–1
- P113:32Trevor Moore Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Phillip Danault (11), Kevin Fiala (21)1–1
- P16:45Adam Larsson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Devin Shore (3), Vince Dunn (21)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:45Adam Larsson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Devin Shore (3), Vince Dunn (21)LA 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 53% → 68% +15SEA 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P113:32Trevor Moore Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Phillip Danault (11), Kevin Fiala (21)LA 1 – 1 SEA · LA 31% → 47% +16LA 31% → 47%+16 pts
- P217:16Anze Kopitar Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (15), Adrian Kempe (18)LA 2 – 1 SEA · LA 48% → 70% +23LA 48% → 70%+23 pts
- P317:31Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (4), Jared McCann (6)LA 2 – 2 SEA · SEA 4% → 51% +47SEA 4% → 51%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 48%
- Fair odds
- SEA -116
- LA +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.0 – 3.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +14 | +16 | LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.35 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.39 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +14 Elo | LA 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 3.318th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+1.0 | Margin | −0.524th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3155.4% | Shot share | 51.4%11th of 31 |
| 6th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 89.5%24th of 31 |
| 5th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 31 |
| 1st of 319–2 | Road vs home | 6–1029th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.