Winnipeg Jets at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Nikolaj EhlersGoals2
- Gabriel VilardiAssists3
- Nikolaj EhlersPoints4
Kings- Anze KopitarGoals1
- Pierre-Luc DuboisAssists1
- Anze KopitarPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:58Mark Scheifele Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (11)5–2
- P32:30Gabriel Vilardi Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Dylan DeMelo (10)4–2
- P215:00Mark Scheifele Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (5), Nikolaj Ehlers (10)3–2
- P213:19Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (4), Mark Scheifele (20)2–2
- P26:08Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (3)1–2
- P112:29Alex Laferriere Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (7)0–2
- P19:36Anze Kopitar Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Kevin Fiala (20), Quinton Byfield (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:36Anze Kopitar Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Kevin Fiala (20), Quinton Byfield (14)WPG 0 – 1 LA · LA 59% → 73% +14LA 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P26:08Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (3)WPG 1 – 2 LA · WPG 12% → 25% +13WPG 12% → 25%+13 pts
- P213:19Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (4), Mark Scheifele (20)WPG 2 – 2 LA · WPG 24% → 43% +20WPG 24% → 43%+20 pts
- P215:00Mark Scheifele Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (5), Nikolaj Ehlers (10)WPG 3 – 2 LA · WPG 44% → 66% +22WPG 44% → 66%+22 pts
- P32:30Gabriel Vilardi Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Dylan DeMelo (10)WPG 4 – 2 LA · WPG 71% → 89% +18WPG 71% → 89%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 62%
- Fair odds
- LA -148
- WPG +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.8 – 3.4 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WPG on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +16 | +21 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.39 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.53 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +82 Elo | LA 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 59.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 31 |
| 7th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.4 | Margin | +1.13rd of 31 |
| 10th of 3151.7% | Shot share | 55.5%2nd of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 91.7%4th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 7th of 317–5 | Road vs home | 4–728th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WPG 0–1 LA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.