Winnipeg Jets at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Brenden DillonGoals1
- Brenden DillonPoints1
Sharks- Justin BaileyGoals1
- Mike HoffmanAssists1
- Justin BaileyPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:09William Eklund Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (16), Anthony Duclair (5)1–2
- P116:09Brenden Dillon Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P19:17Justin Bailey Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Hoffman (4), Jan Rutta (5)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:17Justin Bailey Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Hoffman (4), Jan Rutta (5)WPG 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 53% → 68% +15SJ 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P116:09Brenden Dillon Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneWPG 1 – 1 SJ · WPG 31% → 47% +16WPG 31% → 47%+16 pts
- P315:09William Eklund Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (16), Anthony Duclair (5)WPG 1 – 2 SJ · SJ 51% → 90% +40SJ 51% → 90%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 46%
- Fair odds
- SJ -114
- WPG +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 3.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −1 | WPG: Laurent Brossoit: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +25 Elo | WPG 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 53.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 2.231st of 31 |
| 7th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 4.131st of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −1.931st of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.6% | Shot share | 41.3%31st of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 89.3%25th of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 5th of 317–4 | Road vs home | 5–825th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.