Seattle Kraken at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Brandon TanevGoals1
- Will BorgenAssists1
- Jordan EberlePoints1
Kings- Blake LizotteGoals1
- Blake LizottePoints1
Scoring summary
- P38:00Blake Lizotte Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: none2–1
- P36:27Jordan Eberle Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (11), Will Borgen (12)2–0
- P25:19Brandon Tanev Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:19Brandon Tanev Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSEA 1 – 0 LA · SEA 48% → 67% +19SEA 48% → 67%+19 pts
- P36:27Jordan Eberle Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (11), Will Borgen (12)SEA 2 – 0 LA · SEA 77% → 93% +16SEA 77% → 93%+16 pts
- P38:00Blake Lizotte Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: noneSEA 2 – 1 LA · LA 5% → 22% +16LA 5% → 22%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 60%
- Fair odds
- LA -111
- SEA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.1 – 3.2 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +10 | +14 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +71 Elo | LA 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.6 | Margin | +1.02nd of 31 |
| 12th of 3151.1% | Shot share | 56.4%2nd of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 91.4%8th of 31 |
| 31st of 312–8 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 31 |
| 28th of 314–11 | Road vs home | 4–830th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 0–1 LA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.