Los Angeles Kings at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Anze KopitarGoals1
- Kevin FialaAssists2
- Anze KopitarPoints2
Sharks- Jacob MacDonaldGoals1
- Kevin LabancAssists1
- Jacob MacDonaldPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:41Jacob MacDonald Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Kevin Labanc (5), Filip Zadina (4)4–1
- P318:12Trevor Lewis Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Lizotte (4)4–0
- P25:17Alex Laferriere Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Spence (10), Anze Kopitar (16)3–0
- P24:07Trevor Moore Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (23), Phillip Danault (12)2–0
- P117:48Anze Kopitar Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Arthur Kaliyev (7), Kevin Fiala (22)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:48Anze Kopitar Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Arthur Kaliyev (7), Kevin Fiala (22)LA 1 – 0 SJ · LA 47% → 64% +17LA 47% → 64%+17 pts
- P24:07Trevor Moore Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (23), Phillip Danault (12)LA 2 – 0 SJ · LA 66% → 81% +15LA 66% → 81%+15 pts
- P25:17Alex Laferriere Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Spence (10), Anze Kopitar (16)LA 3 – 0 SJ · LA 82% → 92% +10LA 82% → 92%+10 pts
- P318:12Trevor Lewis Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Lizotte (4)LA 4 – 0 SJ · LA >99% → 100% +0LA >99% → 100%+0 pts
- P318:41Jacob MacDonald Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Kevin Labanc (5), Filip Zadina (4)LA 4 – 1 SJ · SJ 0% → <1% +0SJ 0% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 46%
- Fair odds
- SJ -114
- LA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.0 – 3.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | −8 | LA: David Rittich (no track record yet) · SJ: Kaapo Kahkonen: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +29 Elo | LA 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 53.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 2.231st of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 4.131st of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+1.0 | Margin | −1.931st of 31 |
| 2nd of 3155.8% | Shot share | 41.7%31st of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 89.3%26th of 31 |
| 9th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 31 |
| 1st of 3110–2 | Road vs home | 6–822nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.