San Jose Sharks at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Mikael GranlundAssists2
- Mikael GranlundPoints2
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals2
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists2
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints4
Scoring summary
- P315:11Nathan MacKinnon Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–6
- P310:45Tomas Hertl Goal (11) Backhand, assists: William Eklund (8), Mikael Granlund (18)2–5
- P39:01Ryan Johansen Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Cogliano (6), Caleb Jones (3)1–5
- P29:01Tomas Hertl Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Mikael Granlund (17), Alexander Barabanov (4)1–4
- P23:44Nathan MacKinnon Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–4
- P118:20Miles Wood Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Colton (7), Jonathan Drouin (8)0–3
- P112:15Mikko Rantanen Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (33), Devon Toews (12)0–2
- P17:18Valeri Nichushkin Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Jonathan Drouin (7), Nathan MacKinnon (32)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:18Valeri Nichushkin Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Jonathan Drouin (7), Nathan MacKinnon (32)SJ 0 – 1 COL · COL 52% → 67% +15COL 52% → 67%+15 pts
- P112:15Mikko Rantanen Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (33), Devon Toews (12)SJ 0 – 2 COL · COL 68% → 81% +13COL 68% → 81%+13 pts
- P118:20Miles Wood Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Colton (7), Jonathan Drouin (8)SJ 0 – 3 COL · COL 82% → 91% +9COL 82% → 91%+9 pts
- P23:44Nathan MacKinnon Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSJ 0 – 4 COL · COL 93% → 97% +5COL 93% → 97%+5 pts
- P29:01Tomas Hertl Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Mikael Granlund (17), Alexander Barabanov (4)SJ 1 – 4 COL · SJ 2% → 6% +4SJ 2% → 6%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 58%
- Fair odds
- COL -110
- SJ +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 3.1 – 3.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | COL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −5 | SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +59 Elo | COL 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 52.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 312.2 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 31 |
| 31st of 314.0 | Goals allowed | 3.112th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−1.8 | Margin | +0.58th of 31 |
| 31st of 3141.5% | Shot share | 52.4%7th of 31 |
| 24th of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 89.9%20th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 31st of 313–12 | Road vs home | 11–43rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SJ 0–1 COL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.