Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Jack JohnsonGoals1
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists2
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints2
Jets- Gabriel VilardiGoals2
- Josh MorrisseyAssists2
- Gabriel VilardiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:57Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (22)2–6
- P310:41Jack Johnson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (14), Nathan MacKinnon (31)2–5
- P38:48Nino Niederreiter Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (11), Mason Appleton (10)1–5
- P33:40Gabriel Vilardi Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (12), Josh Morrissey (21)1–4
- P32:07Jonathan Drouin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (24), Nathan MacKinnon (30)1–3
- P28:43Alex Iafallo Goal (5) Backhand, assists: none0–3
- P115:38Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (10), Neal Pionk (9)0–2
- P113:56Gabriel Vilardi Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (21), Josh Morrissey (20)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:56Gabriel Vilardi Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (21), Josh Morrissey (20)COL 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 55% → 70% +16WPG 55% → 70%+16 pts
- P115:38Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (10), Neal Pionk (9)COL 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 70% → 83% +13WPG 70% → 83%+13 pts
- P28:43Alex Iafallo Goal (5) Backhand, assists: noneCOL 0 – 3 WPG · WPG 87% → 95% +8WPG 87% → 95%+8 pts
- P32:07Jonathan Drouin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (24), Nathan MacKinnon (30)COL 1 – 3 WPG · COL 2% → 8% +6COL 2% → 8%+6 pts
- P33:40Gabriel Vilardi Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (12), Josh Morrissey (21)COL 1 – 4 WPG · WPG 93% → 98% +6WPG 93% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 56%
- Fair odds
- WPG -123
- COL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 3.3 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +15 | COL: Ivan Prosvetov: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.38 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +40 Elo | WPG 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 31 |
| 12th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.57th of 31 |
| 7th of 3152.3% | Shot share | 51.4%11th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 91.6%5th of 31 |
| 5th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 31 |
| 12th of 317–6 | Road vs home | 7–615th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 0–1 WPG in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.