Anaheim Ducks at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Troy TerryGoals1
- Troy TerryAssists1
- Troy TerryPoints2
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals2
- Patrick KaneAssists2
- Alex DeBrincatPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:31Alex DeBrincat Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (18), Dylan Larkin (15)4–3
- P37:17Alex DeBrincat Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (3), Shayne Gostisbehere (17)4–2
- P22:29Jeff Petry Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (10), Patrick Kane (2)4–1
- P21:46Troy Terry Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Urho Vaakanainen (6), Alex Killorn (8)4–0
- P118:49Adam Henrique Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Cam Fowler (13), Ryan Strome (15)3–0
- P18:19Pavel Mintyukov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (7), Troy Terry (12)2–0
- P12:23Radko Gudas Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Leason (5), Adam Henrique (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:23Radko Gudas Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Leason (5), Adam Henrique (8)ANA 1 – 0 DET · ANA 40% → 54% +15ANA 40% → 54%+15 pts
- P18:19Pavel Mintyukov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (7), Troy Terry (12)ANA 2 – 0 DET · ANA 56% → 70% +15ANA 56% → 70%+15 pts
- P118:49Adam Henrique Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Cam Fowler (13), Ryan Strome (15)ANA 3 – 0 DET · ANA 75% → 86% +12ANA 75% → 86%+12 pts
- P21:46Troy Terry Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Urho Vaakanainen (6), Alex Killorn (8)ANA 4 – 0 DET · ANA 88% → 95% +7ANA 88% → 95%+7 pts
- P22:29Jeff Petry Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (10), Patrick Kane (2)ANA 4 – 1 DET · DET 5% → 12% +7DET 5% → 12%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 66%
- Fair odds
- DET -154
- ANA +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.8 – 3.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | ANA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −30 | −18 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.75 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DET: Ville Husso: team allows 0.46 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +113 Elo | DET 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 60.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 3.65th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.213th of 31 |
| 29th of 31−0.8 | Margin | +0.49th of 31 |
| 25th of 3148.1% | Shot share | 48.8%21st of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 90.6%14th of 31 |
| 29th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 20th of 316–8 | Road vs home | 8–716th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.