Detroit Red Wings at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings
Flyers- Cam YorkGoals1
- Travis KonecnyAssists1
- Cam YorkPoints1
Scoring summary
- P16:21Cam York Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (9), Tyson Foerster (7)0–1
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:21Cam York Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (9), Tyson Foerster (7)DET 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 54% → 69% +15PHI 54% → 69%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Fair odds
- PHI -120
- DET +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 3.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +18 | +1 | DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.46 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +19 Elo | PHI 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 31 |
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.4 | Margin | +0.313th of 31 |
| 21st of 3148.8% | Shot share | 54.0%5th of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 90.4%15th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 8th of 317–5 | Road vs home | 7–718th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.