Anaheim Ducks at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Alex KillornGoals1
- Alex KillornAssists2
- Alex KillornPoints3
Devils- Michael McLeodGoals1
- Curtis LazarAssists1
- Michael McLeodPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:12Adam Henrique Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–1
- P39:57Troy Terry Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (7), Cam Fowler (12)4–1
- P34:14Alex Killorn Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (4), Cam Fowler (11)3–1
- P219:16Michael McLeod Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Curtis Lazar (5), Nathan Bastian (3)2–1
- P211:17Adam Henrique Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (15), Troy Terry (11)2–0
- P21:46Adam Henrique Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (14), Alex Killorn (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:46Adam Henrique Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (14), Alex Killorn (6)ANA 1 – 0 NJ · ANA 49% → 66% +18ANA 49% → 66%+18 pts
- P211:17Adam Henrique Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (15), Troy Terry (11)ANA 2 – 0 NJ · ANA 69% → 85% +16ANA 69% → 85%+16 pts
- P219:16Michael McLeod Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Curtis Lazar (5), Nathan Bastian (3)ANA 2 – 1 NJ · NJ 11% → 28% +16NJ 11% → 28%+16 pts
- P34:14Alex Killorn Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (4), Cam Fowler (11)ANA 3 – 1 NJ · ANA 75% → 92% +16ANA 75% → 92%+16 pts
- P39:57Troy Terry Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (7), Cam Fowler (12)ANA 4 – 1 NJ · ANA 96% → >99% +3ANA 96% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 56%
- Fair odds
- NJ -107
- ANA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.1 – 3.2 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −5 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · NJ: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +40 Elo | NJ 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 51.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 31 |
| 28th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 31 |
| 29th of 31−1.0 | Margin | +0.115th of 31 |
| 25th of 3148.0% | Shot share | 52.2%9th of 31 |
| 24th of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 89.0%29th of 31 |
| 31st of 311–9 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 21st of 315–8 | Road vs home | 6–619th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.