Anaheim Ducks at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Brett LeasonGoals1
- Brett LeasonPoints1
Rangers- Chris KreiderGoals2
- Adam FoxAssists2
- Chris KreiderPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:57Adam Edstrom Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Barclay Goodrow (3), Braden Schneider (6)1–5
- P315:26Mika Zibanejad Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (25)1–4
- P216:19Chris Kreider Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (24), Adam Fox (17)1–3
- P211:45Jimmy Vesey Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (16), Blake Wheeler (5)1–2
- P117:06Chris Kreider Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (16)1–1
- P113:30Brett Leason Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Lyubushkin (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:30Brett Leason Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Lyubushkin (3)ANA 1 – 0 NYR · ANA 43% → 60% +16ANA 43% → 60%+16 pts
- P117:06Chris Kreider Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (16)ANA 1 – 1 NYR · NYR 39% → 56% +17NYR 39% → 56%+17 pts
- P211:45Jimmy Vesey Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (16), Blake Wheeler (5)ANA 1 – 2 NYR · NYR 55% → 75% +19NYR 55% → 75%+19 pts
- P216:19Chris Kreider Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (24), Adam Fox (17)ANA 1 – 3 NYR · NYR 76% → 90% +14NYR 76% → 90%+14 pts
- P315:26Mika Zibanejad Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (25)ANA 1 – 4 NYR · NYR >99% → >99% +0NYR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 67%
- Fair odds
- NYR -136
- ANA +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.3 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −30 | +8 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.75 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +124 Elo | NYR 67.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 57.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 31 |
| 25th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 31 |
| 29th of 31−0.8 | Margin | +0.48th of 31 |
| 24th of 3148.2% | Shot share | 48.9%20th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 90.9%11th of 31 |
| 31st of 311–9 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 21st of 315–7 | Road vs home | 8–35th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.