Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- A.J. GreerGoals1
- Nazem KadriAssists1
- A.J. GreerPoints1
DucksScoring summary
- P318:00A.J. Greer Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (15)3–0
- P27:49Elias Lindholm Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (16), Yegor Sharangovich (9)2–0
- P12:24Nick DeSimone Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Zary (10), Elias Lindholm (14)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:24Nick DeSimone Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Zary (10), Elias Lindholm (14)CGY 1 – 0 ANA · CGY 46% → 61% +15CGY 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P27:49Elias Lindholm Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (16), Yegor Sharangovich (9)CGY 2 – 0 ANA · CGY 66% → 82% +16CGY 66% → 82%+16 pts
- P318:00A.J. Greer Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (15)CGY 3 – 0 ANA · CGY >99% → >99% +0CGY >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 50%
- Fair odds
- ANA -117
- CGY +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.0 – 3.2 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −24 | CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.60 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +2 Elo | CGY 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.423rd of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.4 | Margin | −0.729th of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.2% | Shot share | 47.8%24th of 31 |
| 24th of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 89.7%23rd of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 31 |
| 26th of 315–11 | Road vs home | 4–1031st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.