Florida Panthers at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Sam ReinhartGoals1
- Aleksander BarkovAssists1
- Sam ReinhartPoints1
Flames- Mikael BacklundGoals1
- Nazem KadriAssists1
- Mikael BacklundPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:27Blake Coleman Goal (10) , assists: none1–3
- P33:31Mikael Backlund Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Noah Hanifin (12)1–2
- P119:29Sam Reinhart Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (17), Aleksander Barkov (19)1–1
- P18:45Martin Pospisil Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Nazem Kadri (15), Dennis Gilbert (5)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:45Martin Pospisil Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Nazem Kadri (15), Dennis Gilbert (5)FLA 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 54% → 69% +15CGY 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P119:29Sam Reinhart Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (17), Aleksander Barkov (19)FLA 1 – 1 CGY · FLA 30% → 47% +17FLA 30% → 47%+17 pts
- P33:31Mikael Backlund Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Noah Hanifin (12)FLA 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 52% → 77% +25CGY 52% → 77%+25 pts
- P318:27Blake Coleman Goal (10) , assists: noneFLA 1 – 3 CGY · CGY 99% → >99% +1CGY 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 49%
- Fair odds
- CGY -117
- FLA +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 3.2 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | 0 | FLA: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +4 Elo | FLA 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 53.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 31 |
| 9th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −0.524th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3155.4% | Shot share | 51.5%10th of 31 |
| 10th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 89.2%27th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 13th of 319–8 | Road vs home | 7–718th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.