Tampa Bay Lightning at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Brayden PointGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints2
Flames- MacKenzie WeegarGoals1
- Jordan OesterleAssists2
- Jordan OesterlePoints2
Scoring summary
- P311:42Connor Zary Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Oesterle (2)2–4
- P35:40Steven Stamkos Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (32), Victor Hedman (23)2–3
- P34:10Brayden Point Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (31)1–3
- P27:00Yegor Sharangovich Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Oesterle (1), Elias Lindholm (13)0–3
- P26:17MacKenzie Weegar Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (10), Blake Coleman (12)0–2
- P22:30A.J. Greer Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (13), Noah Hanifin (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:30A.J. Greer Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (13), Noah Hanifin (11)TB 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 53% → 71% +17CGY 53% → 71%+17 pts
- P26:17MacKenzie Weegar Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (10), Blake Coleman (12)TB 0 – 2 CGY · CGY 71% → 85% +14CGY 71% → 85%+14 pts
- P27:00Yegor Sharangovich Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Oesterle (1), Elias Lindholm (13)TB 0 – 3 CGY · CGY 86% → 94% +8CGY 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P35:40Steven Stamkos Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (32), Victor Hedman (23)TB 2 – 3 CGY · TB 6% → 21% +15TB 6% → 21%+15 pts
- P311:42Connor Zary Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Oesterle (2)TB 2 – 4 CGY · CGY 85% → 98% +13CGY 85% → 98%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 50%
- Fair odds
- CGY -118
- TB +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.2 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −9 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +3 Elo | CGY 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 31 |
| 28th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.628th of 31 |
| 19th of 31−0.2 | Margin | −0.626th of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.0% | Shot share | 51.7%10th of 31 |
| 25th of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 89.0%28th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 31 |
| 22nd of 316–10 | Road vs home | 6–720th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.